Loyal readers of Ivy Coach’s college’s admissions blog know that elite college acceptance rates have been on a downward trend for the last few decades, with many hitting record-low acceptance in the previous few cycles. As the data continues to come in for the Class of 2029, Ivy Coach’s famously accurate crystal ball predicts it won’t show that it’s gotten any less cutthroat. In fact, we forecast that admissions rates will continue to dwindle just as the stock price of an elite college education continues to swell amidst a highly competitive job market and widespread global uncertainty about the future.

Today, we’d like to compare acceptance rates between the Class of 2027 and 2028 at the nation’s top schools (as ranked by US News). While many schools out there that aren’t on this list experienced dramatic declines in acceptance, these highly selective schools provide the best barometer for higher education at large, as they set the tone for all of the rest. Especially after a year of widespread turmoil and terrible PR for many of the most prestigious institutions in the nation, were there any fluctuations in acceptance? Let’s find out:

The Top Schools With the Most Dramatic Declines in Acceptance, 2023—2024

College / University	2023 US News Rank (“Best National Universities”)	Class of 2028 Overall Acceptance Rate	Class of 2027 Overall Acceptance Rate	Change in Acceptance
Duke University	#6	5.10%	6.30%	-19%
Vanderbilt University	#18	5.10%	6.28%	-19%
Johns Hopkins University	#6	6.20%	7.56%	-18%
Yale University	#5	3.73%	4.50%	-17%
Dartmouth College	#13	5.41%	6.23%	-13%
University of Michigan – Ann Arbor	#21	15.64%	17.94%	-13%
University of Notre Dame	#18	11.10%	12.38%	-10%
University of Pennsylvania	#10	5.38%	5.87%	-8%
University of Chicago	#11	4.48%	4.79%	-6%
University of California, Berkeley	#17	11.03%	11.73%	-6%
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	#2	4.52%	4.80%	-6%
Georgetown University	#24	12.33%	13.08%	-6%
Stanford University	#4	3.70%	3.91%	-5%
Columbia University	#13	3.86%	4.00%	-4%
Emory University	#24	10.29%	10.65%	-3%
Brown University	#13	5.16%	5.23%	-1%
Washington University in St. Louis	#21	12.06%	11.96%	1%
Carnegie Mellon University	#21	11.50%	11.40%	1%
Rice University	#18	8.00%	7.88%	2%
University of Virginia	#24	16.81%	16.38%	3%
Princeton University	#1	4.62%	4.50%	3%
University of California, Los Angeles	#15	8.97%	8.73%	3%
Northwestern University	#6	7.50%	7.22%	4%
Harvard University	#3	3.59%	3.45%	4%
Cornell University	#11	8.41%	7.90%	6%
California Institute of Technology	#6	~3.0%	3.14%	N/A

The biggest winners in the acceptance rate race to the bottom over the last two admissions cycles were. . . Duke University, Vanderbilt University, Johns Hopkins University, and Yale University! While none of these schools recorded the lowest acceptance rate on this list (that distinction goes to Caltech, where a slim 3.14% of applicants were admitted to the Class of 2027, beating out Harvard University for the crown), these schools saw the most dramatic declines in percent change over time.

Let’s back up. Because we’re calculating the percent change between 2027 and 2028, a school with a 4% decrease in acceptance would have a much more dramatic percent change if its starting point was, say, 6% for the Class of 2027 versus 11%. That’s just math, folks! So even though the absolute acceptance rate fell precipitously at the University of Michigan, Duke takes the cake!

Ivy Coach’s Assistance With Securing Elite College Acceptance

Feeling overwhelmed by these statistics? Unsure of how your child will be able to secure a spot at their dream school in such a competitive environment? Don’t worry — our team of former elite college admissions officers has been helping guide students to top schools for over three decades. We at Ivy Coach understand the complexities of the admissions process and can help your child increase their chances of getting into their top choice school, allowing you to take a break from the heavy lifting. 

To get started, fill out our complimentary consultation form, and we’ll be in touch with an outline of our services.